← MVP x DTR Store Championship
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at MVP x DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 51.6% | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 27.0% | -12.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |