← MVP x DTR Store Championship
Fire RileTier 1
at MVP x DTR Store Championship
decks
16
(51.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
60
37-20-3
overall winrate
64.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.5%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
60.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1373
· median 1379
· range 1131–1532
(16 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1209
Q3 1403
1532
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
6% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 9.7% | 6 | 6-0-0 | 100.0% | 80.0% | 73.0% | +12.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 52.2% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 53.1% | +1.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.9% | +14.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 32.5% | -9.4 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.2% | -5.1 |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.5% | +3.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Slimes | 3.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.5% | +1.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.6% | +3.5 |
Decklists · 16 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 21 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 5 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Rending Flames, Drawn Blade, Lorraine, Wandering Warrior. Losers more often ran: Fiery Interference, Safeguard Amulet, Staggering Strike.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
13, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 5.
Drawn Blade
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 11.
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 13.
Clarent, Reimagined
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 10.
Hasty Messenger
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
11, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 6.
Lorraine, Blademaster
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 21 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 10.
Fiery Interference
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
12, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 13.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 21 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 15.
Show all 159 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 139 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiery Interference | -0.57 | 0 | 12 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.48 | 13 | 3 | 2 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.38 | 9 | 1 | 10 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.38 | 8 | 0 | 12 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.33 | 9 | 2 | 7 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 11 | 4 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.33 | 9 | 2 | 7 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.33 | 9 | 2 | 7 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.29 | 11 | 5 | 4 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.29 | 1 | 7 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.29 | 0 | 6 | 1 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.24 | 5 | 10 | 2 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.24 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.24 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.24 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.24 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.19 | 10 | 6 | 5 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.19 | 8 | 4 | 8 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.19 | 9 | 5 | 4 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.19 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.14 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.14 | 4 | 7 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.14 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.14 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | -0.14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.14 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.10 | 6 | 4 | 8 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.10 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.10 | 3 | 1 | 17 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.10 | 5 | 7 | 3 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.10 | 5 | 7 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.10 | 11 | 9 | 1 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.10 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.10 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smashing Force | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Relentless Hexchaser | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.05 | 8 | 7 | 6 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -0.05 | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.05 | 6 | 5 | 6 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.05 | 5 | 6 | 2 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.05 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.05 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.05 | 6 | 7 | 3 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.05 | 5 | 6 | 2 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.05 | 6 | 5 | 4 | |
| Fireball | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.05 | 7 | 6 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.05 | 6 | 5 | 4 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.05 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scorched Conquest | -0.05 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.05 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.05 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 19 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 5 | 5 | 8 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 6 | 6 | 5 | |
| Galed Erasure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 |