Fire ExiaTier 2
at DFG Store Champs DTR
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
3-7-1
overall winrate
31.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.0%
avg ELO -7.4 per match
expected value
40.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1362
· median 1362
· range 1173–1550
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1158
Q1 1228
Q3 1424
1616
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 57.9% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.8% | -9.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 15.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.7% | -20.5 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
