Horse and TaxesTier 1
at DFG Store Champs DTR
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-2-2
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8%
avg ELO -2.5 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1474
· median 1474
· range 1474–1474
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1158
Q1 1228
Q3 1424
1616
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 57.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 46.2% | -2.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Fire Exia | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Horse and Taxes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
