Fire RileTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 11 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• RayneeDay 83 cards · placed #1
• Brai 84 cards · placed #2
• Crimsym 83 cards · placed #3
• Skysama 85 cards · placed #4
• Bocol123 86 cards · placed #5
• Vynstein 88 cards · placed #8
• Excalibur 88 cards · placed #9
• LongN 87 cards · placed #12
• AndrewPenguin 86 cards · placed #13
• SolarGames 85 cards · placed #14
• fome 83 cards · placed #15

In 12 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Uncover the Plot, Excalibur, Cleansing Light, Luxera's Map. Losers more often ran: Flame Sweep, Regal Inquisition, Blanche, Sheltering Saint.

↑ Played more by winners

Uncover the Plot

Winning decks ran 1.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.

Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 7.

Excalibur, Cleansing Light

Winning decks ran 1.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.2.

Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 7.

Luxera's Map

Winning decks ran 0.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.1.

Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 8.

Zander, Deft Executor

Winning decks ran 0.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.1.

Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 8.

Heavenly Guide

Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.4.

Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 4.

Gleaming Cut

Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 8.

↓ Played more by losers

Flame Sweep

Losing decks ran 1.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.

Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 7.

Regal Inquisition

Losing decks ran 2.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.4.

Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 2.

Blanche, Sheltering Saint

Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.

Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 8.