Fire OblationTier 1
at DFG Store Champs DTR
decks
3
(15.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
12-8-2
overall winrate
59.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1341
· median 1374
· range 1263–1385
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1158
Q1 1228
Q3 1424
1616
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 57.9% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 53.7% | +1.9 |
| Fire Exia | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.9% | -12.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.6% | -1.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.6% | -1.0 |
