Water Umbra CielTier 2
at DFG Store Champs DTR
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
0-6-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.7%
avg ELO -6.6 per match
expected value
36.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1158
· median 1158
· range 1158–1158
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1158
Q1 1228
Q3 1424
1616
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 57.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Fire Exia | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
