Water Tera MageTier 1
at DFG Store Champs DTR
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-2-4
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
69.7%
avg ELO +8.8 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
62.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1179
· median 1179
· range 1179–1179
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1158
Q1 1228
Q3 1424
1616
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 57.9% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 65.3% | +8.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 15.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Fire Exia | 10.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.3% | +20.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
