← Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/25/2024
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/25/2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 15.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Wind Neos | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erratic Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arcane Disposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana Limiter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Arcane | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Anger the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm Tyrant's Eye | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |