← Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/25/2024
Water AlliesTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/25/2024
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.6% | -1.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 4.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Water Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 54 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 54 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drowned Cut | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refresh Chamber | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cruiser | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Benevolent Battle Priest | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scale of Souls | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |