← Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/25/2024
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/25/2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 15.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Wind Allies | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Honorable Vanguard, Library Witch, Scry the Skies. Losers more often ran: Flame Sweep, Fast Cure, Exorcise Curses.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Increasing Danger | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |