← Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/25/2024
Fire EruptingTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 4/25/2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 15.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Wind Allies | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arisanna, Lucent Arbiter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cemetery Sentry | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Elysian Astrolabe | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |