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Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.9% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +2.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 12.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.1% | +8.3 |
| Water Fractal | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.8% | +8.5 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |