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Water AetherwingTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 16.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.5% | -9.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mana's Cascade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reposition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Take Aim | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 |