Fire AggroTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-6-2
overall winrate
53.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.4%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1376
· median 1376
· range 1323–1429
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1265
Q3 1411
1607
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 45.8% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 29.9% | -10.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.0% | -21.1 |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
