Fire RileTier 1
at DTR Store Championship
decks
11
(45.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
49
24-22-3
overall winrate
52.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.1%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1332
· median 1307
· range 1190–1527
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1265
Q3 1411
1607
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
27% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 70.1% | +10.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.2% | +3.1 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.7% | +5.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 37.6% | -7.9 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 49.4% | -0.3 |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.3% | +2.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 37.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.1% | -10.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 65.9% | +11.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.8 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (3 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Evercurrent Raider, Insignia of the Corhazi, Uncover the Plot. Losers more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Fluffy Shopkeep, Flame Sweep.
Evercurrent Raider
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Insignia of the Corhazi
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Uncover the Plot
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Luxera's Map
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Zander, Deft Executor
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Excalibur, Cleansing Light
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Flame Sweep
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Regal Inquisition
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Rending Flames
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 102 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 82 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -0.71 | 0 | 5 | 2 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.71 | 0 | 5 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.57 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.43 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Berserker Plate | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Liao, Bloodmonger | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |