Water FractalTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
2-7-0
overall winrate
22.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.2%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
39.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1328
· median 1328
· range 1317–1338
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1265
Q3 1411
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 45.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.7% | -2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
