Fire Crux MageTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 45.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |