Water AlliesTier 2
at DTR Store Championship
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
7-8-2
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.9%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1226
· median 1226
· range 1126–1327
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1265
Q3 1411
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 45.8% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 50.6% | +0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
