Fire ExiaTier 2
at 貓腳印士林店 GA店家冠軍賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 61.3% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -1.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 22.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -2.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 12.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhao Yun, Dragonsblood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bloodshroud Temper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Sunder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |