Horse and TaxesTier 1
at 貓腳印士林店 GA店家冠軍賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 61.3% | 11 | 7-3-1 | 68.2% | 63.3% | 62.2% | +5.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 22.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Exia | 9.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.7% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 59.0% | +5.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 6.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.8% | +11.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -6.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Fire Suited | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Horse and Taxes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 10 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 10 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |