Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Outpost Ghent | Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.0% | +6.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.7% | +15.0 |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.3% | +6.1 |
| Water Fractal | 6.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.6% | +8.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +2.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |