← Outpost Ghent | Regional

Wind AlliesTier 2

at Outpost Ghent | Regional

decks
4 (8.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21 9-10-2
overall winrate
47.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.6% avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
51.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1220 · median 1220 · range 1074–1366 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028 Q1 1164 Q3 1365 1520
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Mage 10.6% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 43.7% -6.1
Fire Firebloom Burn 8.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.7% +10.7
Water Aetherwing 8.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.1% +19.3
Water Fractal 6.4% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.3% +1.7
Wind Seiryuu 6.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.8% +16.1
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 37.3% -12.2
Fire Slimes 4.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 56.7% +6.4
Fire Suited 4.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.5% -13.5
Fire Suzaku 4.3% 0
Water Umbra Guardian 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.0% +16.0
Fire Aetherwing 2.1% 0
Fire Aggro 2.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.0% +14.5
Fire Arcane 2.1% 0
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.1% 0
Slimes 2.1% 0
Water Allies 2.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.4% -7.3
Water Astra Ranger 2.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.3% +13.3
Water Genbu 2.1% 0
Water Umbra Ciel 2.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.7% -10.2
Wind Arcane 2.1% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 2.1% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 2.1% 0
Wind Kongming 2.1% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 2.1% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 39.5% -10.1
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 81 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 81 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Dilu, Auspicious Charger +1.00 2 0 0
Reconnaissance Scout +1.00 2 0 0
Reclaim -1.00 0 2 0
Flash Grenade +1.00 2 0 0
Perse, Relentless Raptor +1.00 2 0 0
Concealed Marksman +1.00 2 0 0
Evasive Maneuvers +1.00 2 0 0
Shimmercloak Assassin -1.00 0 2 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 2 0 0
Unbroken Mustang -1.00 0 2 0
Liu Bei, Oathkeeper +1.00 2 0 0
Draught of Stamina +1.00 2 0 0
Aether's Embrace +1.00 2 0 0
Ranger Strides +1.00 2 0 0
Diana, Keen Huntress +1.00 2 0 0
Windmill Engineer -1.00 0 2 0
Second Wind +1.00 2 0 0
Eternal Magistrate +1.00 2 0 0
Veiled Dash +1.00 2 0 0
Backstep +1.00 2 0 0
Emerald Pistol +1.00 2 0 0
Incapacitate +1.00 2 0 0
Brackish Lutist +1.00 2 0 0
Brisk Windtrotter -1.00 0 2 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 2 0 0
Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor +1.00 2 0 0
Windpiercer +1.00 2 0 0
Skirting Step +1.00 2 0 0
Aesan Protector -0.50 0 1 1
Rose, Eternal Paragon -0.50 0 1 0
Ghostsight Mare -0.50 0 1 0
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin +0.50 1 0 1
Determined Spearman -0.50 0 1 0
Lurking Assailant -0.50 0 1 0
Charged Mannequin -0.50 0 1 0
Stifling Trap -0.50 0 1 0
Eye of Argus -0.50 0 1 0
Sharpening Stone -0.50 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking -0.50 0 1 0
Rallied Advance -0.50 0 1 0
Windrider Vanguard -0.50 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs +0.50 1 0 1
Inert Sword +0.50 1 0 1
Inspiring Call -0.50 0 1 0
Galewhisper Rogue -0.50 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -0.50 0 1 0
Trained Hawk -0.50 0 1 0
Ornamental Greatsword -0.50 0 1 0
Lorraine, Blademaster -0.50 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet +0.50 1 0 1
Swift Recruit -0.50 0 1 0
The Looking Glass +0.50 1 0 1
Drawn Blade -0.50 0 1 0
Powercell -0.50 0 1 0
Tariff Ring +0.50 1 0 1
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior -0.50 0 1 0
Censer of Restful Peace +0.50 1 0 1
Evasive Positioning -0.50 0 1 0
Blissful Calling -0.50 0 1 0
Veiling Breeze -0.50 0 1 0
Forest Cake -0.50 0 1 0
Attune with the Winds -0.50 0 1 0
Rearing Rebound -0.50 0 1 0
Green Slime -0.50 0 1 0
Beastbond Boots -0.50 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.50 0 1 0
Fluffy Shopkeep -0.50 0 1 0
Hurricane Sweep -0.50 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -0.50 0 1 0
Effigy of Gaia -0.50 0 1 0
Silvie, With the Pack -0.50 0 1 0
Verdigris Decree -0.50 0 1 0
Silvie, Loved by All -0.50 0 1 0
Bedivere, Woodland Overseer -0.50 0 1 0
Baby Green Slime -0.50 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror -0.50 0 1 0
Innervate Agility -0.50 0 1 0
Portentous Tanggu -0.50 0 1 0
Silvie, Wilds Whisperer -0.50 0 1 0
Zephyr +0.00 1 1 0
Dream Fairy +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/33478/archetypes/Wind Allies