Fire SuitedTier 1
at Outpost Ghent | Regional
decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-5-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.7%
avg ELO +3.8 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1152
· median 1152
· range 1131–1173
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1164
Q3 1365
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Water Fractal | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
