Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Outpost Ghent | Regional
decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-5-1
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1244
· median 1244
· range 1244–1244
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1164
Q3 1365
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.9 |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Water Fractal | 6.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
