← DX Store Champion Main Event

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DX Store Champion Main Event. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Allies 1 3.1% 7 85.7% 77.3% 65.8% 67.5% 1431 ↑ top
2 Water Genbu 1 3.1% 7 100.0% 68.7% 63.2% 59.2% 1491 ↑ top
3 Wind Seiryuu 3 9.4% 20 62.5% 66.1% 60.5% 64.6% 1302
4 Fire Crux Mage 9 28.1% 39 60.3% 49.9% 56.3% 50.9% 1302
5 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 6.2% 15 60.0% 64.5% 56.0% 59.8% 1384 ↑ top
6 Fire Exia 1 3.1% 6 58.3% 51.4% 51.1% 51.7% 1193 ↓ low
7 Fire Rile 18 56.2% 61 52.5% 47.4% 49.8% 48.7% 1305
8 Horse and Taxes 3 9.4% 15 46.7% 41.9% 47.7% 45.5% 1385 ↑ top
9 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 3.1% 5 40.0% 41.4% 46.9% 46.4% 1362 ↑ top
10 Slimes 1 3.1% 5 0.0% 33.4% 39.2% 43.8% 1083 ↓ low
11 Wind Shadowstrike 4 12.5% 29 36.2% 44.4% 38.1% 43.3% 1283
12 Fire Firebloom Burn 3 9.4% 20 35.0% 48.9% 37.9% 46.1% 1121 ↓ low
13 Fire Aggro 1 3.1% 4 0.0% 31.5% 35.9% 40.3% 1265
14 Fire Seiryuu 1 3.1% 7 0.0% 25.3% 34.1% 38.0% 1125 ↓ low