← DX Store Champion Main Event
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DX Store Champion Main Event.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 85.7% | 77.3% | 65.8% | 67.5% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 100.0% | 68.7% | 63.2% | 59.2% | 1491 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 9.4% | 20 | 62.5% | 66.1% | 60.5% | 64.6% | 1302 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 9 | 28.1% | 39 | 60.3% | 49.9% | 56.3% | 50.9% | 1302 | — |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 6.2% | 15 | 60.0% | 64.5% | 56.0% | 59.8% | 1384 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 51.4% | 51.1% | 51.7% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Rile | 18 | 56.2% | 61 | 52.5% | 47.4% | 49.8% | 48.7% | 1305 | — |
| 8 | Horse and Taxes | 3 | 9.4% | 15 | 46.7% | 41.9% | 47.7% | 45.5% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 41.4% | 46.9% | 46.4% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Slimes | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 0.0% | 33.4% | 39.2% | 43.8% | 1083 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 12.5% | 29 | 36.2% | 44.4% | 38.1% | 43.3% | 1283 | — |
| 12 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 3 | 9.4% | 20 | 35.0% | 48.9% | 37.9% | 46.1% | 1121 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 31.5% | 35.9% | 40.3% | 1265 | — |
| 14 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 3.1% | 7 | 0.0% | 25.3% | 34.1% | 38.0% | 1125 | ↓ low |