EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 暖角落 GA 店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 2 | 5.4% | 17 | 79.4% | 73.6% | 60.6% | 58.3% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 2.7% | 8 | 75.0% | 62.3% | 58.1% | 55.9% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 5.4% | 15 | 66.7% | 56.9% | 55.3% | 53.6% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 3 | 8.1% | 21 | 61.9% | 48.1% | 54.6% | 50.0% | 1391 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 43.8% | 54.1% | 48.7% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 2.7% | 7 | 42.9% | 57.5% | 53.3% | 55.7% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 33.3% | 45.7% | 52.5% | 55.6% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Rile | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 65.8% | 52.0% | 53.9% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Genbu | 2 | 5.4% | 13 | 53.8% | 49.3% | 50.3% | 48.6% | 1355 | — |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 5.4% | 14 | 53.6% | 45.8% | 50.3% | 45.8% | 1311 | — |
| 11 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 8.1% | 19 | 55.3% | 66.5% | 50.1% | 53.6% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 2.7% | 7 | 28.6% | 38.8% | 50.0% | 51.1% | 1359 | — |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 8 | 21.6% | 33 | 42.4% | 47.5% | 47.2% | 49.4% | 1309 | — |
| 14 | Water Luxem Zander | 1 | 2.7% | 5 | 20.0% | 40.4% | 46.7% | 49.2% | 1257 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 5.4% | 14 | 35.7% | 32.8% | 46.5% | 43.9% | 1430 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Tera Kongming | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 25.0% | 56.8% | 46.4% | 55.4% | 996 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Fractal | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 25.0% | 35.5% | 46.2% | 46.4% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 50.0% | 48.1% | 45.7% | 45.9% | 1328 | — |
| 19 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 2.7% | 7 | 50.0% | 38.5% | 45.0% | 42.2% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 20 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 2.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 44.4% | 44.8% | 41.0% | 1409 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 2.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 52.6% | 42.9% | 49.3% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Neos | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 33.3% | 35.1% | 42.4% | 41.9% | 1249 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 16.7% | 35.0% | 41.2% | 43.2% | 1407 | ↑ top |