Fire AggroTier 2
at SC Store Championship
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-5-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1358
· median 1358
· range 1306–1410
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
990
Q1 1235
Q3 1404
1539
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.5% | -15.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
