Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at SC Store Championship
decks
4
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
9-7-0
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.4%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1300
· median 1245
· range 1172–1539
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
990
Q1 1235
Q3 1404
1539
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.8% | +3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.3% | +8.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
