Water GenbuTier 2
at SC Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.7% | -8.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -5.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |