Fire Crux MageTier 1
at SC Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 43.2% | -3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.7% | +6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.4% | -7.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +15.9 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |