Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at EVO Regional(DTR)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 66.9% | +9.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 51.1% | +0.7 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.8% | +8.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.2% | -14.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surreptitious Scheme | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |