Water Tera MageTier 3
at EVO Regional(DTR)
decks
1
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-4-1
overall winrate
35.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
45.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1145
· median 1145
· range 1145–1145
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1034
Q1 1210
Q3 1457
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
