Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at EVO Regional(DTR)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 10.4% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -3.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.0% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 33.1% | -9.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 67.8% | +10.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.4% | +9.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.6% | +3.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.7% | -2.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.3% | -28.3 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Ciel | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Scatter Essence, Nullifying Mirror. Losers more often ran: Ensnaring Fumes, Mastermind Scheme.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Lookout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |