Fire Crux MageTier 1
at EVO Regional(DTR)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.6% | -3.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.9% | -7.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.8% | +6.6 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Wind Ciel | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surreptitious Scheme | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |