← EVO Regional(DTR)

Water FractalTier 1

at EVO Regional(DTR)

decks
4 (6.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27 13-13-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1% avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
49.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1319 · median 1332 · range 1132–1478 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1034 Q1 1210 Q3 1457 1599
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 11.9% 5 1-4-0 20.0% 33.3% 32.2% -10.2
Fire Suzaku 10.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 60.1% +9.6
Fire Crux Lorraine 9.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.7% -19.7
Fire Crux Mage 6.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 58.1% +7.7
Wind Razorgale 6.0% 0
Wind Seiryuu 6.0% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 4.5% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 49.4% -0.5
Water Allies 4.5% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 68.0% +17.3
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.4% +3.9
Water Genbu 3.0% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 3.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.1% +6.5
Fire Arcane 1.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.4% +13.5
Fire Exia 1.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.0% +11.3
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.5% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 30.5% -18.7
Fire Oblation 1.5% 0
Fire Slimes 1.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.6% +15.4
Fire Umbra Guardian 1.5% 0
Horse and Taxes 1.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.1% -7.8
Water Aetherwing 1.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.6% -7.0
Water Astra Ranger 1.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.3% -1.0
Water Crux Mage 1.5% 0
Water Neos 1.5% 0
Water Tera Cleric 1.5% 0
Water Tera Mage 1.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.1% +13.0
Water Umbra Guardian 1.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.0% -16.0
Wind Astra Cleric 1.5% 0
Wind Ciel 1.5% 0
Wind Vanitas 1.5% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/35554/archetypes/Water Fractal