Water FractalTier 1
at EVO Regional(DTR)
decks
4
(6.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27
13-13-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
49.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1319
· median 1332
· range 1132–1478
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1034
Q1 1210
Q3 1457
1599
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 32.2% | -10.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.1% | +9.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.1% | +7.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.4% | -0.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.0% | +17.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.5% | -18.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
