← Maindeck/JWW DTR Regionals

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Maindeck/JWW DTR Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Fire Crux Lorraine
58.9%
2.4% share · 6 matches
↑ top
1st
Fire Aggro
59.0%
2.4% share · 6 matches
↑ top
3rd
Wind Crux Lorraine
57.6%
7.1% share · 19 matches
↑ top
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Aggro 1 2.4% 6 91.7% 59.5% 59.0% 53.8% 1590 ↑ top
2 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 2.4% 6 75.0% 49.0% 58.9% 51.5% 1447 ↑ top
3 Wind Crux Lorraine 3 7.1% 19 65.8% 51.8% 57.6% 55.3% 1375 ↑ top
4 Water Wind Vanitas 1 2.4% 6 58.3% 58.0% 56.5% 57.5% 1294 —
5 Water Crux Mage 1 2.4% 6 75.0% 58.6% 55.6% 53.2% 1376 ↑ top
6 Water Allies 1 2.4% 6 75.0% 64.7% 55.0% 54.7% 1359 ↑ top
7 Wind Arcane 2 4.8% 12 62.5% 67.4% 54.8% 58.3% 1320 —
8 Wind Razorgale 2 4.8% 12 62.5% 56.6% 54.1% 54.0% 1493 ↑ top
9 Water Astra Ranger 2 4.8% 13 57.7% 53.8% 52.7% 54.1% 1236 —
10 Water Tera Kongming 1 2.4% 6 66.7% 53.1% 52.5% 50.5% 1362 ↑ top
11 Slimes 1 2.4% 5 20.0% 45.4% 51.4% 53.5% 1165 ↓ low
12 Wind Seiryuu 2 4.8% 12 58.3% 50.8% 50.4% 49.0% 1308 —
13 Wind Astra Cleric 1 2.4% 6 50.0% 50.2% 49.2% 50.0% 1190 ↓ low
14 Fire Firebloom Burn 2 4.8% 12 41.7% 55.5% 49.1% 52.2% 1153 ↓ low
15 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 2.4% 6 58.3% 59.1% 47.9% 51.3% 1352 ↑ top
16 Wind Shadowstrike 8 19.0% 36 45.8% 40.6% 47.3% 45.3% 1319 —
17 Water Penguin Mill 1 2.4% 6 41.7% 42.9% 47.1% 47.2% 1192 ↓ low
18 Wind Lorraine 1 2.4% 6 58.3% 63.1% 46.2% 51.4% 1079 ↓ low
19 Wind Overlord 1 2.4% 6 50.0% 57.8% 46.1% 51.7% 1112 ↓ low
20 Wind Slimes 1 2.4% 6 33.3% 30.4% 45.0% 41.7% 1340 ↑ top
21 Water Tera Mage 1 2.4% 6 41.7% 53.9% 44.3% 47.7% 1080 ↓ low
22 Fire Ravishing Mill 1 2.4% 4 25.0% 43.3% 44.0% 46.6% 1201 ↓ low
23 Fire Suzaku 1 2.4% 6 33.3% 48.2% 42.7% 45.9% 1120 ↓ low
24 Wind Allies 1 2.4% 4 12.5% 42.2% 41.0% 46.1% 1023 ↓ low
25 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 2.4% 4 12.5% 42.2% 41.0% 46.1% 1023 ↓ low
26 Fire Exia 1 2.4% 4 0.0% 33.2% 40.0% 43.2% 1034 ↓ low
27 Water Umbra Ciel 1 2.4% 4 0.0% 34.9% 40.0% 44.0% 1102 ↓ low
28 Wind Astra Diana 1 2.4% 1 0.0% 40.4% 40.0% 40.4% 1095 ↓ low
29 Wind Silvie 1 2.4% 4 0.0% 28.2% 40.0% 41.7% 1055 ↓ low