← Distorted Reflection Shuffle Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at Distorted Reflection Shuffle Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.5% | +6.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Slimes | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.1% | +12.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -2.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 6 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 6 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |