Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Round Table Games Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Recursive Confidant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intangible Geist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conflagrant Sentinel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vorpal Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |