Water Umbra AliceTier 2
at Round Table Games Regionals
decks
1
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.4%
avg ELO -10.7 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1131
· median 1131
· range 1131–1131
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1045
Q1 1132
Q3 1310
1638
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
