Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at Round Table Games Regionals
decks
2
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
1-8-0
overall winrate
11.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
27.8%
avg ELO -10.3 per match
expected value
41.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1100
· median 1100
· range 1058–1142
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1045
Q1 1132
Q3 1310
1638
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Chess | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
