Water AetherwingTier 1
at Round Table Games Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 72.5% | +21.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.4% | +3.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.0% | +10.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Prudent Nock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ranger Boots | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Drown in Aether | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backstep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Disenchant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Chained Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |