Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Round Table Games Regionals
decks
2
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.7%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1328
· median 1328
· range 1305–1352
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1045
Q1 1132
Q3 1310
1638
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 44.6% | -3.4 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Alice | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
