← [TCG] Jan. RED STITCH CLOTH MAT event
Water Astra RangerTier 1
at [TCG] Jan. RED STITCH CLOTH MAT event
decks
2
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
6-1-2
overall winrate
77.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1294
· median 1294
· range 1270–1317
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1280
Q3 1441
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Astra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
