← [TCG] Jan. RED STITCH CLOTH MAT event
Water Tera MageTier 2
at [TCG] Jan. RED STITCH CLOTH MAT event
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Arcane | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mnemonic Charm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tsunami of Nanyue | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lu Bu, Indomitable Titan | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhou Yu, Enlightened Sage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ruinous Pillars of Qidao | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sempiternal Sage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Indolent Leisure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enervating Decay | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |