← [TCG] Jan. RED STITCH CLOTH MAT event
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at [TCG] Jan. RED STITCH CLOTH MAT event
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.9% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 51.5% | +0.9 |
| Water Fractal | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 48.7% | -0.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Water Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.6% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.9% | +0.7 |
| Wind Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calming Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Peer Beyond | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |