← AGORA HOBBY PTM Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at AGORA HOBBY PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.7% | +4.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
| Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Triskit | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Water Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |