← AGORA HOBBY PTM Store Championship
Water Dawn of AshesTier 3
at AGORA HOBBY PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-4-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.8%
avg ELO -6.0 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1208
· median 1208
· range 1208–1208
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1184
Q3 1370
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
