← AGORA HOBBY PTM Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 2
at AGORA HOBBY PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
5-7-3
overall winrate
43.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.8%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1266
· median 1255
· range 1088–1455
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1184
Q3 1370
1584
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 9.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.4 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
