← ProjectCCG - PTM Store Championships - 01-18-2026

Fire Crux LorraineTier 1

at ProjectCCG - PTM Store Championships - 01-18-2026

decks
3 (10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6 3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.7% avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
50.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1492 · median 1562 · range 1321–1593 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1060 Q1 1234 Q3 1495 1736
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Seiryuu 10.0% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 10.0% 0
Fire Aetherwing 6.7% 0
Fire Aggro 6.7% 0
Fire Crux Mage 6.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 56.6% +6.3
Dawn of Ashes 3.3% 0
Fire Exia 3.3% 0
Fire Oblation 3.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.2% +6.7
Fire Suzaku 3.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.0% +4.8
Neos 3.3% 0
Slimes 3.3% 0
Water Aetherwing 3.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.9% -16.2
Water Astra Diana 3.3% 0
Water Astra Ranger 3.3% 0
Water Chess 3.3% 0
Water Fractal 3.3% 0
Water Genbu 3.3% 0
Water Umbra Guardian 3.3% 0
Wind Allies 3.3% 0
Wind Exia 3.3% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 3.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.4% -12.2
Wind Razorgale 3.3% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.3% 0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Hone by Fire +1.00 2 0 0
Gentle Respite +1.00 2 0 0
Rending Flames +1.00 2 0 0
Library Witch +1.00 2 0 0
Topsy Decree -1.00 0 2 0
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin -0.50 0 1 1
Staggering Strike +0.50 1 0 0
Spirit Blade: Dispersion +0.50 1 0 1
Lorraine, Spirit Ruler +0.50 1 0 1
Peer Beyond -0.50 0 1 1
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.50 1 0 0
Backup Charger -0.50 0 1 1
Flame Sweep +0.50 1 0 1
Spirit's Blessing +0.50 1 0 1
Turbo Charge -0.50 0 1 1
Infernal Vessel +0.50 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +0.50 1 0 1
Sword Saint's Vow +0.50 1 0 1
Immolation Trap -0.50 0 1 1
Spirit Blade: Ascension -0.50 0 1 1
Escape the Wreckage -0.50 0 1 1
Prismatic Edge -0.50 0 1 1
Tempered Steel +0.50 1 0 1
Annul Spell +0.50 1 0 0
Varuck, Smoldering Spire -0.50 0 1 1
Heavenly Guide -0.50 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -0.50 0 1 0
Incapacitate -0.50 0 1 0
Lorraine, Crux Knight -0.50 0 1 0
Undying Dreams -0.50 0 1 0
Devastating Blow -0.50 0 1 0
Flamewreath Call -0.50 0 1 0
Fluffy Shopkeep +0.00 1 1 0
Regal Inquisition +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/41578/archetypes/Fire Crux Lorraine